When we launched in November 2025, First Principles Briefs (FPBs) established our analytical approach.
But readers kept asking: "This tells me what the company does. Now tell me: what's the case for ownership—and when does it break?"
That's what's changing in 2026.
Bear/Base/Bull cases with specific assumptions and implied value ranges—not point estimates.
Example: If normalized ROE is 15-17%, fair P/B is 0.8-1.0x (+14% to +43% upside from current 0.7x). If ROE reverts to 5-7%, fair P/B is 0.5x (-29% downside).
Hard Red Flags (thesis-breaking conditions):
Monitoring Signals (early warnings):
Beyond surface observations—understanding the quality of competitive advantage, not just its existence.
Example: "Survival during crisis ≠ competitive advantage. The fortress balance sheet meant they didn't need heroic returns—they just needed to not die. That's defensive resilience, not offensive pricing power."
Warren Buffett famously said: "If we can't make a decision in five minutes, we can't make it in five months."
These analyses take 15-20 minutes to read—a bit longer to absorb. But the goal is to give you what Buffett gets in those 5 minutes: clarity on whether the business deserves long-term ownership—and under what conditions.
If the answer is yes, the entry price becomes a secondary question.
We don't provide specific "buy at $X" price targets. Dozens of sites will give you different figures, and valuation is as much art as science.
What we provide instead: the insight to know if a business is worth long-term ownership. Once you have conviction on that, Buffett's logic applies:
"With a wonderful business, you can figure out what will happen; you can't figure out when it will happen. You don't want to focus on when, you want to focus on what. If you're right about what, you don't have to worry about when."
Or as he puts it more directly: "If you're right about the business, you'll make a lot of money."
The Owner's Analysis gives you the conviction. The entry point is yours to decide.
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